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DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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But Harry is in fact Voldemort - in a certain unconscious sense.
Lucius decided that he is Harrymort because of Harry's reply to Quirrel's Christmas speech, but he would never have thought about it if the preexisting Harry Potter - Voldemort connection had not brought the hypothesis to mind. And that connection, the hints that make up the real majority of the evidence for the Harrymort hypothesis, is made of true evidence.
If Lucius now came to disbelieve in Harrymort, he would not be discarding a completely false hypothesis.