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ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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You should probably not even have a 90% probability for satisfaction of your criteria (the full exoneration of Hermione in the eyes of the public). I'm probably assigning less than 50% probability on that being the actual end result given how well she was framed -- any specific path to that conclusion should therefore be even less likely.