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Alsadius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think Quirrell will be a hell of a lot harder to frame than that, and that stumbling block alone drops the odds below even.
I suppose we will find out any minute now as soon as it updates.
I imagine Quirrell would have planned perfectly to prevent any suspicion to fall on him. But even he might not be able to imagine being framed for a crime he actually committed.
That would be a pretty serious failure of imagination for a guy like him.