I don't see how self-awareness makes any sort of difference?
Either explanation fits 100% of the known facts. Harry assumes the Hat pranked him because that's what he wants to believe. But that Harry was actually sorted into Slytherin is considered more likely by several intelligent characters in the story. Regarding Quirrell's belief of this, Harry even admits:
Professor Quirrell was wrong, but wrong in such a convincing way that Harry was starting to think that it simply was the rational judgment given the evidence available to Professor Quirrell. There were times, never predictable times but still sometimes, when you would get improbable evidence and the best knowable guess would be wrong.
What evidence does Harry have that Quirrell lacks? The only relevant special knowledge he has is that the Sorting Hat had some extra ability to appreciate humor at the time of his sorting, and wanted to steer him to Hufflepuff. I don't consider that strong evidence. However it is the reason that I even allow a 50% chance that the prank really did occur, as opposed to being 80%+ certain that Harry is actually Slytherin.
And what sort of evidence did Quirrell have that Harry lacked? A knowledge of how Dumbledore works, how the various factions in the school mesh, and the history of the Sorting Hat's lack of screwing around when it comes to the business of sorting. Harry knows all those now, but he's already fixated on his previous answer and doesn't want to abandon it.
We've been given more than just clues - we've been told directly by two characters that Harry is actually Slytherin, indirectly by at least one, and have Harry's actions to judge him by. When the most intelligent and rational character in the fic considers this the simplest/most probable answer, I don't think it's that complicated or speculative. It may very well be a large flashing neon sign by the author saying "Hey! Consider this hypothesis! This one right here that I've repeated several times and pointed out how likely it seems!"
I don't see how self-awareness makes any sort of difference?
You said:
a neutral interpretation of the facts would've placed at least an equally high probability on someone meddling with his sorting, as on the Hat played its first prank in over 600 years.
But you did not consider that since the Sorting Hat was sentient for the first time in its existence, it would be very likely to do other things for the first time in its existence.
...The only relevant special knowledge he has is that the Sorting Hat had some extra ability to appreciate humor at the t
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 81, which should be published later today. The previous thread passed 400 comments as of the time of this writing, so it will pass 500 comments soon after the next chapter is posted, if not before. I suggest refraining from commenting here until chapter 81 is posted; comment in the 12th thread until you read chapter 81. After chapter 81 is posted, I suggest all discussion of previous guesses be kept here, with links to comments in the previous thread.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.) When posted, chapter 81 should appear here.
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,nine, ten, eleven, twelve.
As a reminder, it’s often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: