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ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Why would Dumbledore use evasive statements to Lucius if Dumbledore's purpose back then was to convince Lucius that he did kill Narcissa?
His words to Harry are different because the context is different - he wants Harry to understand the necessity behind the Death Eaters thinking he burned Narcissa alive, but there exists disutility both in saying "no, I didn't burn her alive" and this potentially leaking back to the Death Eaters, and in saying "yes, I did burn her alive" and this potentially leaking back to the Wizengamot.
So he gives Harry the reasons that the belief is necessary, but he doesn't tell him if it's true.
And what about the disutility of saying "yes, I did burn her alive" and this potentially leaking back to his supporters ? Wouldn't it destroy his image as the representant of Light ? Would it still be worth fighting on his side ? Maybe I am fooled by assuming, that Eliezer Yudkowsky has the same cultural background as I have, and that the light characters strongly believe in Geneva conventions, particularly the protection of non-combatants.
You mean if he actually said it as clearly as that to Lucius Malfoy?
Almost nobody believed Lucius, not even his own supporters in the Wizengamot, as has been mentioned in the story already. Only the Death Eaters seem to have believed it, perhaps because Voldemort believed it.
It's different if The Boy Who Lived testifies to the same effect (that Dumbledore told him he did it) infront of the Wizengamot.
Witness Draco's efforts to find some plausible deniability as a Malfoy, and realize what the odds are that anyone would believe Lucius even if he spoke simple truth.
My impression is that the senior Order of the Phoenix members already know the truth, and the Light-side power brokers who don't know the truth are not particularly interested in evidence.