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Xachariah comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Counterpoint to 1 - Lucius is a major player in the story now and Draco is important to him. Draco still has his rationality training and access to his father, if he needs to sway him.
Plus, Harry has given Draco an unblockable means of instantaneous communication that nobody even suspects he has. Plot-wise, that means he's now never completely out of the story unless he gets killed or sent to Azkaban.
That means of communication requires his wand. He may be denied his wand for reasons unrelated to that means of communication.
(Unlikely, though.)