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75th comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

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Comment author: 75th 10 April 2012 04:04:17AM 0 points [-]

Minus two points! Shocking! I guess I should have explained myself:

  • Amelia Bones thinks "Someone would burn for this" as her default revenge scenario.
  • Narcissa Malfoy's sister killed Amelia Bones's brother.
  • Amelia Bones was the one to tell Dumbledore during the Wizengamot session not two chapters ago that he couldn't tell Lucius what he knew about Narcissa's death.

Three solid clues all pointing the same direction. Thus I deem it "obvious".

Comment author: Percent_Carbon 10 April 2012 05:07:01AM 3 points [-]

  • Draco said that Lucius said that Dumbledore said he did it

  • Dumbledore explains why it would have been very useful to kill Narcissa

  • Amelia thinks that Dumbledore did things that were not soft toward the end of the war

Three clues is not enough for obvious.

Comment author: thomblake 11 April 2012 04:19:17PM 1 point [-]

Minus two points! Shocking!

Well, Hermione only got minus two points for failing to try to kill Quirrell.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 10 April 2012 11:43:20AM 1 point [-]

I didn't downvote you, and I also consider it most likely that Amelia Bones killed Narcissa Malfoy.

But I'm not sure these suffice to call it obvious, if obvious means something like >95%. I'd assign it something like a 70-75% likelihood.

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