You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (790)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 11 April 2012 02:18:31PM *  10 points [-]

Which is precisely why I am asking these questions, because there are many ways Eliezer could conclude it's a good idea:

  1. maybe, as I already suggested, best novel nominee > best fanfic award
  2. perhaps Eliezer likes the idea of being a best novel nominee or winner so much that he doesn't mind the significantly reduced expected-value
  3. he has non-public information

    • eg. there are famous writers who have told him they will propagandize for MoR and order their fans to vote for it
  4. he has not thought about it in any detail or come up with calibrated probabilities like I have
  5. he plans to publish MoR as multiple books (given its length) and first books in series are the best to go for best novel and later books can shoot their wad on less prestigious awards
  6. the rules favor MoR in some way I am unaware of

    • eg. he thinks he can issue a call for MoR fans to attend and vote, erasing the disadvantages I otherwise accurately assess

etc.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 12 April 2012 05:36:18AM 4 points [-]

My theory is that Eliezer is overestimating his chances of winning best novel.

Comment author: Alsadius 12 April 2012 10:16:55PM 2 points [-]

5) is not a believable option, since the legalities of fanfic prohibit any conventional sort of publication, and just slapping "Book 1"/"Book 2"/etc. on top of chapter headings does very little.

The rest is good analysis, though.

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 10:42:00PM 3 points [-]

since the legalities of fanfic prohibit any conventional sort of publication

No, they don't. They just mean it takes a publisher with a little guts, willing to defend it under fair use grounds (in MoR's case, parody).

Comment author: komponisto 13 April 2012 04:11:39PM 1 point [-]

since the legalities of fanfic prohibit any conventional sort of publication

No, they don't. They just mean it takes a publisher with a little guts, willing to defend it under fair use grounds (in MoR's case, parody)

They would lose, and probably correctly so. If that defense worked for MoR, it could be applied to any situation where someone just made up their own story using someone else's characters, and the whole concept of copyright would be effectively abolished.

(Not that abolishing copyright wouldn't be a policy worth considering...)

Actually, in fact, it seems obvious to me that any publication at all -- "conventional" or not -- of fanfiction is blatantly illegal, just like distributing your own modified version of Microsoft Windows would be.

(Note that "is illegal" is not the same thing as "should be illegal".)

Comment author: gwern 13 April 2012 04:34:26PM 3 points [-]

They would lose, and probably correctly so. If that defense worked for MoR, it could be applied to any situation where someone just made up their own story using someone else's characters, and the whole concept of copyright would be effectively abolished.

Are you under the impression that fair use has never worked before or parody in particular? Because otherwise I don't understand why you are so certain of what you are saying.

Comment author: komponisto 13 April 2012 04:54:08PM *  3 points [-]

I think it's clear that MoR is not (merely) parody, but a literary work in its own right that happens to be derived from an existing work by someone else.

It's a kind of thing that I think ought to be allowed, but which I don't think actually is.

Comment author: gwern 13 April 2012 05:06:17PM 4 points [-]

I think it's clear that MoR is not (merely) parody, but a literary work in its own right that happens to be derived from an existing work by someone else.

Something that could be said with equal justice of The Wind Done Gone.

Comment author: TimS 13 April 2012 05:19:00PM *  3 points [-]

But see Dr. Suess Enterprises v. Penguin Books.

In brief, someone used elements of Dr. Seuss to criticize the OJ verdict. Held: not parody fair use because the target of the parody was not the infringed work.

So, how reasonable is it to say that MoR is a parody of canon!Potterverse? I honestly don't know the answer, but I suspect it would be dispositive of the fair use analysis.

Comment author: gwern 13 April 2012 05:43:00PM *  2 points [-]

How reasonable? I think pretty reasonable; MoR directly criticizes canon on numerous occasions, from the exchange rate to Hermione being Sorted into Gryffindor to Harry using random curses on Slytherins and on and on. Reading through one link on that, I see nothing about the Seuss parody parodizing Seuss, and plenty that fits MoR, eg.:

Parody achieves its status as social commentary by disparaging the original work, however slightly, by "pointing out faults, revealing hidden affectations, emphasizing weaknesses, and diminishing strengths.^1^

or

The court concluded that the infringing work broadly mimicked Dr. Seuss' characteristic style, but it did not ridicule that style. 170 The court noted that Penguin's use of the Cat's stove-pipe hat, Dr. Juice as a narrator, and a title similar to the original's title were all means of drawing attention to the new work, perhaps "to avoid the drudgery in working up something fresh."171

Finally, with regard to the purpose and character of use, the Ninth Circuit considered whether The Cat NOT in the Hat! merely superseded the Dr. Seuss originals or whether it "transformed" those works. 172 The court did not recognize any effort to create a transformative work. 173 As a result, under the first factor, the court concluded the scale tipped against fair use because the infringing work was neither a parody nor transformative. I74

...When considering a parodist's claim to fair use, a court must first determine if an infringer's work meets the threshold requirement for the defense: "whether a parodic character may reasonably be perceived. >7232 Courts have recognized parody as a work containing a discernible direct comment on the original. 233 Although the Ninth Circuit conceded Penguin's work did broadly mimic Dr. Seuss' style, it concluded that the work was not a parody because The Cat NOT in the Hat! did not target the "substance" of the original work.234

Comment author: TimS 13 April 2012 06:07:29PM *  4 points [-]

There's surely some kind of sliding scale. My HP fanfic:

Harry took the machine gun, and gunned down the Dursleys for being abusive parents. The End

is critical of something - but if it isn't the Potterverse, then it isn't parody. That doesn't mean that the work is not fair use (I think the third and fourth factors weigh heavily in my favor).

In short, I don't think that an interpretation of fair use (of which parody is the relevant type) that protects all fanfic is likely to be adopted, even if MoR was fair use of the Potterverse.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 April 2012 06:00:10PM 1 point [-]

Courts have recognized parody as a work containing a discernible direct comment on the original.

Thanks for the data, that's very helpful.

But imagine you had to defend MoR as parody. What would you say is MoR's discernable direct comment on the original? Would you say that this comment is leveled specifically at JKR's world? Is this comment the central aim of MoR?

Comment author: komponisto 13 April 2012 05:11:36PM 1 point [-]

Something that could be said with equal justice of The Wind Done Gone.

...and sure enough, there was a lawsuit.

Comment author: gwern 13 April 2012 05:17:20PM 3 points [-]

Which they won, paying nothing to the plaintiffs and continuing to publish The Wind Done Gone. Which is why I am using it as an example!

Comment author: komponisto 13 April 2012 05:19:32PM *  2 points [-]

No, it says they settled:

the case was settled in 2002 when Houghton Mifflin agreed to make an unspecified donation to Morehouse College in exchange for Mitchell's estate dropping the litigation.

...thus in effect purchasing the right to publish, which is what they were supposed to have done all along.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 April 2012 05:23:19PM 1 point [-]

EY originally wrote the thing while (on record) attributing the characters and context to JKR, and then (on record) mentioned that JKR said she is fine with fan works and doesn't require attribution, after which he stopped.

I'm no lawyer, but I expect this means that EY is on record acknowledging his creative debt to JKR, and doing so because he thought he was legally obligated to. It seems like it would be hard to argue that MoR is fair use. This shows that the intent of the work was something the author thought was in range of her copyright, and thus not something like parody.

Comment author: gwern 13 April 2012 05:35:24PM *  2 points [-]

I'm no lawyer, but I expect this means that EY is on record acknowledging his creative debt to JKR, and doing so because he thought he was legally obligated to. It seems like it would be hard to argue that MoR is fair use. This shows that the intent of the work was something the author thought was in range of her copyright, and thus not something like parody.

This makes no sense to me.

EDIT: and specifically, acknowledging the debt is more of a good thing; from one discussion:

Whether the infringer copied the original in good faith or for a commercial interest may contribute to the court's understanding of the context of the infringement.72 Any aspect of the infringer's conduct, including whether the infringer acknowledged the copyright owner or whether the infringer sought permission, can be considered.73 Acknowledgment of a source, however, does not excuse infringement when other § 107 factors are present. 74 Additionally when the second work is a parody, the parodist is neither expected to seek nor obtain the copyright holder's permission.75 Understandably, few authors would grant permission to have their character or their work mocked.76

Comment author: [deleted] 13 April 2012 05:56:31PM 2 points [-]

I just looked up JKR's statements on fan fiction, and I got the impression that she would sue in case something were published for profit, or just published in some print medium (I suppose a book or magazine).

I don't think you could defend MoR as a parody with JKR's original books as the target. Some MoR chapters point out absurdities in JKR's work, but EY doesn't make it his business to lampoon the original series. Judging from the wiki page on fair use, this makes MoR a 'satire', and these fare much worse in fair use cases.

The point about acknowledging debt is just that EY apparently went in with the intention of publishing something within range of JKR's copyright. This would speak against an argument that the intention was parody: if the original intention were fair use parody, then why the legal disclaimers at the heading of each chapter? If that was out of respect only, then why the word 'disclaimer', and why stop doing it after JKR had given legal permission to FF writers?

Comment author: Random832 13 April 2012 04:26:50PM 0 points [-]

It wouldn't abolish the whole concept of copyright - just characters-and-scenarios copyright, of which I am not sure what the actual legal basis it originates in is, or to what extent it has been tested in court.

Comment author: komponisto 13 April 2012 04:44:44PM 1 point [-]

Yes, I meant for the word "whole" to modify the word "concept", not the word "copyright". That is, my sentence was meant to be read as:

[T]he whole concept of copyright would be effectively abolished.

Distinguish between the scope of copyright (i.e. what kinds of items it applies to) and the force of the same (how much activity it prohibits within its scope). The emphasis of my claim was on the force rather than the scope.

Comment author: cultureulterior 12 April 2012 01:28:45PM *  2 points [-]

All you need to vote is a supporting membership, cost $60 or so. You don't have to attend.

As soon as HPMOR is finished (hopefully not soon), I will buy a supporting membership to the next year's worldcon. On that note, let me urge Eliezer to finish HPMOR in the summer of some year, so enough supporting memberships can nominate it by January 1.

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 02:29:26PM 2 points [-]

All you need to vote is a supporting membership, cost $60 or so. You don't have to attend.

I'm not sure that materially increases the number of votes one could expect. Gee, only $60...

Comment author: cultureulterior 12 April 2012 02:55:38PM *  1 point [-]

You only need 100 votes to get nominated, and then the nomination itself will get more people reading it.

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 03:16:03PM 4 points [-]

That page is old, as I noted in my other comment, and if you read the Constitution (article 3) which governs the Hugo award, the nomination is not so numeric; for example:

Except as provided below, the final Award ballots shall list in each category the five eligible nominees receiving the most nominations. If there is a tie including fifth place, all the tied eligible nominees shall be listed.

and

3.8.5: No nominee shall appear on the final Award bnominatallot if it received fewer nominations than five percent (5%) of the number of ballots listing one or more nominations in that category, except that the first three eligible nominees, including any ties, shall always be listed.

Going back to the 2011 data (and being mindful the vote counts have set records frequently in the 2000s as the convention apparently grows), we see the last place novel is 306 ballots. pg17 gives us the original nomination votes: last place novel there was 78 ballots.

So, yes, MoR could probably get on the ballot if >78 people all remember to register by 31 January of that year (good thing MoR isn't finished yet because it's too late for 2012) so they are eligible to vote on nominations, and actually put MoR #1 on their ballots; see the Constitution again:

Each member of either the administering or the immediately preceding Worldcon as of January 31 of the current calendar year shall be allowed to make up to five (5) equally weighted nominations in every category.

Comment author: LauralH 07 February 2013 08:32:42PM 0 points [-]

I also think this is a good idea, and hereby vow to buy a membership when HPMoR is finished for this purpose of voting it for Best Novel. As pointed out, even being nominated would get it a lot more attention.

I'm hoping for something like Neil Gaiman had when he won and then they banned comics/graphic novels afterwards.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 April 2012 10:33:46AM *  2 points [-]

I think the main thing you're missing is that nothing bad happens to me if I don't win. This could serve as a mantra for a whole lot of things in life that are worth trying.

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 01:28:14PM 17 points [-]

'Nothing bad happens to' two-boxers either. Do I really need to explain that loss of a gain is as bad as a gain of a loss?

Comment author: JGWeissman 12 April 2012 05:17:22PM 1 point [-]

Dumbledore would say that is why you go for multiple gains in parallel.

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 08:08:36PM 1 point [-]

I didn't understand what you meant so I asked on IRC and you seem to be referring to multiple plots.

Comment author: JGWeissman 12 April 2012 08:40:34PM 1 point [-]

Yes, that is the story reference. As it applies here, is there any reason that Eliezer could not attempt to win multiple awards?

Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 08:59:57PM 8 points [-]

Yes. First, the Constitution specifies that if a work is ever successfully nominated, it cannot be nominated again, so MoR can only be done once. (Examining the categories carefully, pg 6-7, it may or may not be technically possible that MoR could be nominated in one year for Best Novel and then Eliezer himself - on the strength of fandom arising from MoR - nominated for 'Best Fan Writer'.)

Second, the rules get very complex on pg 8 about multiple categories, which is why I did not bring it up before:

3.8.2: The Worldcon Committee shall determine the eligibility of nominees and assignment to the proper category of works nominated in more than one category.

3.8.3: Any nominations for "No Award" shall be disregarded.

3.8.4: If a nominee appears on a nomination ballot more than once in any one category, only one nomination shall be counted in that category.

3.8.5: No nominee shall appear on the final Award ballot if it received fewer nominations than five percent (5%) of the number of ballots listing one or more nominations in that category, except that the first three eligible nominees, including any ties, shall always be listed.

3.8.6: The Committee shall move a nomination from another category to the work’s default category only if the member has made fewer than five (5) nominations in the default category.

3.8.7: If a work receives a nomination in its default category, and if the Committee relocates the work under its authority under subsection 3.2.9 or 3.2.10, the Committee shall count the nomination even if the member already has made five (5) nominations in the more-appropriate category.

I... don't actually know what all that means. Clause 3.8.4 seems to indicate that putting MoR up into multiple award categories would have the effect of splitting and diluting all votes, which seems like a bad thing.

Comment author: Incorrect 12 April 2012 10:24:07PM 1 point [-]

Actually I'm pretty sure that's not what Clause 3.8.4 is saying. I think it means that you can't have two entries on the ballot for MoR under the same category just like you can't have two entries for "Obama" for president.

That would be kind of funny though. Would you like to vote for:

  • Obama
  • Obama
  • Obama
  • Romney
  • Obama or
  • Obama
Comment author: gwern 12 April 2012 10:33:19PM 5 points [-]

"Have you got anything without spam?"

Comment author: TheOtherDave 11 April 2012 02:39:30PM 1 point [-]

maybe, as I already suggested, best novel nominee > best fanfic award

Why, so you did. Careless reading of me... my apologies.