You know, on reflection I think that this was possibly a kinda snotty way of saying what I wanted to say: that I think gwern is right, and that you'd be better off applying in the Fan Writer category than in the Best Novel category. And I don't think it's true that going for the Best Novel is without cost, because you'd be giving up the chance at the Fan Writer award.

I mean, I'm happy to make the bet because I am very confident that I'll win it, but I don't actually want to punish you for putting your work out there or shooting for a high goal--which is what it sort of feels like, if I make you pay me when you lose.