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Locke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 15, chapter 84 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Despite the many good reasons to believe Quirrell is H&C, My Red Herring Alarm (©) wouldn't stop going off while Harry was going over the list of suspects. My gut is usually fairly good at seeing plot-twists coming, and it's very certain there's someone Harry is forgetting about. Anyone else getting a similiar vibe?
I think H&C is Snape. I am really confused about what was going on with H&C1 and Quirrell but everything since then is consistent with Snape plotting against Harry.
What do you think is his motive?
(Full disclosure: I'm >80% confident it was Quirrell.)
Full disclosure for me as well, I want H&C to be Snape so there may be confirmation bias at work on my part. I think that the rage inducing revelation that Snape had in chapter 22 caused Snape to abandon his canon role has Harry's protector and went back to the obvious role for him: fighting for the dark lord whom he used to serve and will soon be returning. Which means fighting against Harry.
For what its worth Harry also thinks something significant happened in that interaction:
*Just before Harry left the workroom, with his hand on the doorhandle, the boy turned back and said, "As long as we're here, have either of you noticed anything different about Professor Snape?"
"Different?" said the Headmaster.
Minerva didn't let her wry smile show on her face. Of course the boy was apprehensive about the 'evil Potions Master', since he had no way of knowing why Severus was to be trusted. It would have been odd to say the least, explaining to Harry that Severus was still in love with his mother.
"I mean, has his behavior changed recently in any way?" said Harry.
"Not that I have seen..." the Headmaster said slowly. "Why do you ask?"
Harry shook his head. "I don't want to prejudice your own observations by saying. Just keep an eye out, maybe?"
That sent a quiver of unease through Minerva in a way that no outright accusation of Severus could have.*
The evidence against QQ is pretty strong;
Only a Hogwarts professor, Dumbledore, and maybe Lupin could do that.
That rules out everyone is isn't willing to kill innocent children to advance their plots. Realistically, only QQ fits.
Whether Harry has enough information to figure it out is a different question.
What is special about Lupin that he could pull it off? The professors would probably have security clearance. Dumbledore has security clearance and is incidentally freaking Dumbledore but Lupin is just some wizard. He's fairly competent but not so much as, say, Mad-Eye. I suppose he has better than average Hogwarts-security knowledge due to his misspent youth...
Lupin was brought in as a special instructor for the Patronus charm, thus might possibly have professor status.
Snape falls into the first category. That said, I agree that Quirrell is almost certainly the actual culprit.