XiXiDu comments on Help me teach Bayes' - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (19)
To make it clearer, shouldn't this step be = P(B) * P(A|B)?
Also, are middle school pupil in the U.S. familiar with the notation? Maybe one should state it in English instead?
The probability of A if B is known to occur is equal to the probability of A times the probability of B if A is known to occur divided by the probability of B.
ETA
The probability of A and B to occur at the same time is the same as the probability of A to occur alone times the probability of B to occur under the condition that A is known to occur.