It depends on the context (probability distribution over number and locations and types of lives), with various complications I didn't want to get into in a short comment.

Here's a different way of phrasing things: if I could trade off probability p1 of increasing the income of everyone alive today (but not providing lasting benefits into the far future) to at least $1,000 per annum with basic Western medicine for control of infectious disease, against probability p2 of a great long-term posthuman future with colonization, I would prefer p2 even if it was many times smaller than p1. Note that those in absolute poverty are a minority of current people, a tiny minority of the people who have lived on Earth so far, their life expectancy is a large fraction of that of the rich, and so forth.