I have reservations about BitCoin, but mainly on the monetary policy level. Inflation sometimes has its uses in economic policy, and deflation can sometimes be a lot more disastrous than inflation. I think BitCoin, by capping the total amount of money that can possibly circulate, would lend itself to liquidity traps - a deflationary spiral.
However, the idea of "computationally mining the sky" (not just using solar energy, but also using the cosmos as a heat sink) is positively brilliant. Perhaps the only question is: when will its time come?
To be clear: I wasn't proposing KickSat as a business model. That never even occurred to me. For one thing, immediate practicality seems like an awful lot to ask at this point. If the goal is massive computing power in orbit, KickSat isn't going to deliver practicality. (I've got a Sprite coming, and when it arrives, I'll be writing code for a slow 16-bit microprocessor for the first time in perhaps 25 years.)
The more important goal at this point is obvious: to get more reality-testing of the ServerSky idea. We can get more reality-testers if there's an increase in awareness of the idea -- which is why you're posting this notice to Less Wrong, yes? Thinsats seem like an absurd idea on the face of it. But the same could have been said of the planar transistor before it happened. As soon as you had one planar transistor, people started thinking about it the whole idea a lot more. That first planar transistor wasn't a commercially practical device. Probably the first few thousand fabricated at Bell Labs weren't practical. What drove commercialization efforts at that point wasn't profit, it was promise -- a promise made more credible by a physical realization.
Call it "hardware as propaganda", if you like, but most people don't really believe in what they haven't first seen. Less Wrong isn't "most people" -- it partakes of a strong speculative mindset. Please understand -- I like powerful speculation, personally. But it's hardly representative of what makes most people invest time and effort, much less money, in an idea. Talking about planar transistors didn't put the word "germanium" on people's lips. Making one did. It turned out silicon was really the ticket. But if a germanium planar transistor hadn't gotten people saying something, nothing would have happened.
If I had to pick a key phrase in what I posted above, it's "demonstration effect." At this point, it seems the best way to physically demonstrate anything remotely like ServerSky is with a Sprite fleet.
The following is intended as 1) request for specific criticisms regarding the value of time investment on this project, and 2) pending favorable answer to this, a request for further involvement from qualified individuals. It is not intended as a random piece of interesting pop-sci, despite the subject matter, but as a volunteer opportunity.
Server Sky is a an engineering proposal to place thousands (eventually millions) of micron-thin satellites into medium orbit around the earth in the near term. It is being put forth by Keith Lofstrom, the inventor of the Launch Loop.
Abstract from the 2009 paper:
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Some mildly negative evidence to start with: I have already had a satellite scientist tell me that this seems unlikely to work. Avoiding space debris and Kessler Syndrome, radio communications difficulties (especially uplink), and the need for precise synchronization are the obstacles he stressed as significant. He did not seem to have studied the proposal closely, but this at least tells us to be careful where to set our priors.
On the other hand, it appears Keith has given these problems a lot of thought already, and solutions can probably be worked out. The thinsats would have optical thrusters (small solar sails) and would thus be able to move themselves and each other around; defective ones could be collected for disposal without mounting an expensive retrieval mission, and the thrusters would also help avoid things in the first place. Furthermore the zone chosen (the m288 orbit) is relatively unused, so collisions with other satellites are unlikely. Also the satellites have powerful radar capabilities, which should lead to more easily detecting and eliminating space junk.
For the communications problem, the idea is to use three dimensional phased arrays of thinsats -- basically a bunch of satellites in a large block working in unison to generate a specific signal, behaving as if they were a much larger antenna. This is tricky and requires precision timing and exact distance information. The array's physical configuration will need to be randomized (or perhaps arranged according to an optimized pattern) in order to prevent grating lobes, a problem with interference patterns that is common with phased arrays. They would link with GPS and each other by radio on multiple bands to achieve "micron-precision thinsat location and orientation within the array".
According to the wiki, the most likely technical show-stopper (which makes sense given the fact that m288 is outside of the inner Van Allen belt) is radiation damage. Proposed fixes include periodic annealing (heating the circuit with a heating element) to repair the damage, and the use of radiation-resistant materials for circuitry.
Has anyone else here researched this idea, or have relevant knowledge? It seems like a great potential source of computing power for AI research, mind uploads, and so forth, but also for all those mundane, highly lucrative near term demands like web hosting and distributed business infrastructures.
From an altruistic standpoint, this kind of system could reduce poverty and increase equitable distribution of computing resources. It could also make solving hard scientific problems like aging and cryopreservation easier, and pave the road to solar power satellites. As it scales, it should also create demand (as well as available funding and processing power) for Launch Loop construction, or some other similarly low-cost form of space travel.
Value of information as to whether it can work or not therefore appears to be extremely high, something I think is crucial for a rationalist project. If it can work, the value of taking productive action (leadership, getting it funded, working out the problems, etc.) should be correspondingly high as well.
Update: Keith Lofstrom has responded on the wiki to the questions raised by the satellite scientist.
Note: Not all aspects of the project have complete descriptions yet, but there are answers to a lot of questions in the wiki.
Here is a summary list of questions raised and answers so far:
In his reply to the comments on Brin's post, Keith Lofstrom mentions using obsolete sats as ballast for much thinner sats that would be added to the arrays as the manufacturing process improves. Obsolete sats would not stay in use for long.
Ping times are going to be limited (70ms or so), and worse than you can theoretically get with a fat pipe (42ms), but it is still much better than you get with GEO (250+ ms). This is bad for high frequency trading, but fine for (parallelizable) number crunching and most other practical purposes.
It takes roughly 2 months for a 3 gram thinsat to pay for the launch energy if it gets 4 watts, assuming 32% fuel manufacturing efficiency. Blackbody cooling is another benefit.
Flash memory is acknowledged to be the most radiation sensitive component of the satellite. The solution would involve extensive error correction software and caching on multiple satellites.
Circuits will be manufactured as two dimensional planes, which don't short as easily. Another significant engineering challenge: Thermal properties in the glass will need to be matched with the silicon and wires (for example, slotted wiring with silicon dioxide between the gaps) to prevent circuit damage. Per Vanvier, it may be less expensive to replace silicon with other materials for this purpose.
Efficient power/cooling, increased communications, overall scalability, relative lack of environmental impact.
Yet to be answered:
Insightful comments: