convince the most promising AI researchers (especially promising young researchers) to seek different careers
Relinquishment? My estiamte of the effectiveness of that hovers around zero. I don't see any reason for thinking that it has any hope of being effective.
Especially not if the pitch is: YOU guys all relinquish the technology - AND LET US DEVELOP IT!!!
That will just smack of complete hypocracy.
Cosmetically splitting the organisation into the neo-luddute activists and the actual development team might help to mitigate this potential PR problem.
hire the most promising AI researchers to do research in secret
Surely secret progress is the worst kind - most likely to lead to a disruptive and unpleasant outcome for the majority - and to uncaught mistakes.
How do I tell whether a small group doing secret research will be better or worse at saving the world than the global science/military complex? Does anyone have strong arguments either way?
Stuart Armstrong paraphrasing a typical AI researcher
I forgot to mention in my last post why "AI risk" might be a bad phrase even to denote the problem of UFAI. It brings to mind analogies like physics catastrophes or astronomical disasters, and lets AI researchers think that their work is ok as long as they have little chance of immediately destroying Earth. But the real problem we face is how to build or become a superintelligence that shares our values, and given that this seems very difficult, any progress that doesn't contribute to the solution but brings forward the date by which we must solve it (or be stuck with something very suboptimal even if it doesn't kill us), is bad. The word "risk" connotes a small chance of something bad suddenly happening, but slow steady progress towards losing the future is just as worrisome.
The usual way of stating the problem also invites lots of debate that are largely beside the point (as far as determining how serious the problem is), like whether intelligence explosion is possible, or whether a superintelligence can have arbitrary goals, or how sure we are that a non-Friendly superintelligence will destroy human civilization. If someone wants to question the importance of facing this problem, they really instead need to argue that a superintelligence isn't possible (not even a modest one), or that the future will turn out to be close to the best possible just by everyone pushing forward their own research without any concern for the big picture, or perhaps that we really don't care very much about the far future and distant strangers and should pursue AI progress just for the immediate benefits.
(This is an expanded version of a previous comment.)