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Maelin comments on More intuitive programming languages - Less Wrong Discussion
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On a tangent (and just for my curiosity), can you explain/link an explanation of what the phrase "non-empty reference class" means? I infer from context it means that there is a non-empty set of instances, but what is the meaning of this specific 'reference class' wording?
By reference class I mean "the set of things that are like Subtext that I'd use to get my prior probability of success from, before updating on the specific merits of Subtext (or its flaws)".
I've acquired the term both from previous discussions here on LW and from slightly more formal training in forecasting, specifically participating in the Good Judgment Project.
There are perils of forecasting based on reference classes (more), but it can be a useful heuristic.
I suspect it is "Previous Similar Attempts," useful in avoiding Planning Fallacy and as fault analysis material.