DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Your probabilities seem way too low to me. Just one chance in 10 that because of the vow he'll be forced to kill the one we have many evidence to believe he's the arch-enemy ? Can you elaborate the reasons why you put such a low probability to that ?
I don't think he can kill Quirrel. Certainly not without a very cunning plan and Dumbledore at his side. And vice versa.
ETA: by vice versa I meant he can't kill Dumbledore without Quirrel's help.
I'm sure Quirrel could kill Harry very easily if he so desired.
At least, not by the end of the school year!