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DavidAgain comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I thought the probabilities sounded high! He said he'd take the killer of Narcissa as his enemy, but did he promise to kill? I'm not sure why SkyDK and to a greater extent you are moving straight to killing - albeit his intent to kill has been noted, but he's also very anti-death.
If the vow really did say he would kill, maybe higher. But I don't find Harry's obsession with keeping the vow plausible: I think it's Author Avataring, either straightforward/accidental or because Eliezer is quite deliberately exploring his own challenges and by extension that of other could-be Eliezer-types.
I think SkyDK was referring to the vow he made in chapter 85, that he'll try the superhero way (not killing his enemies) as long as no one dies (be it a friend or just a by -stander), but that the day someone days because of his enemies, he'll no longer restrain himself and kill them. Not to the "old" vow about avenging the death of Narcissa.