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RichardKennaway comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ah. In that case, I choose to discount gur qr-choyvfurq nhgube pbzzrag ba gur znggre and predict that Quirrell, as we have seen him so far, is neither Voldemort, nor Voldemort's puppet.
ETA: Edited only to rot13 something and correct Quirrell's name.
I further predict, more speculatively, that Harry will wrongly come to the opposite conclusion, betray Quirrel, and only too late realise his mistake in turning against his strongest ally. Furthermore, Harry will make this mistake through applying what he has learned from Quirrel about good and evil to Quirrel himself.
All predictions based solely on my reading of the published story.
And furthermore, as a result of this, Harry's eventual victory will come at far greater cost than it otherwise would.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
Of course. As I said in another comment, I rate the combined probability substantially below 0.5.
I think Quirrel is dying. He has lapses where he goes into "zombie-mode" and what is that, really? It could be some kind of disease or magical illness- perhaps at the end of the year Harry permanently loses his mentor because the illness has finally killed Q or put him in a coma.
What odds would you give for that?
I'm not interested in a monetary bet, but when I reach into the unknown depths within and pull out a number, it's 80%. For my more speculative predictions, I'd put the chance that I am right in every detail substantially below 50%. I shall be most gratified if it turns out that I nailed it.
Neither am I; I should have said "probability".
...Wow. Really? Bearing in mind that Eliezer is on record as saying he does not deceive his readers with red herrings?
Yes, really. Certainly, Quirrell has some significant relationship to Voldemort, and the questions of who Quirrell really is and what that relationship is have been raised in the fic. But I don't think Eliezer has been deceiving the readers.
Some bits of the foregoing discussion really ought to be rot13ed.
Spoilers ahoy:
Ryvrmre unf pbzzragrq gung Ibyqrzbeg == Dhveeryy zber guna bapr. Va gur puncgre jurer Dhveeryy fnlf ur pnfg n fcryy ba gur Cvbarre cyndhr, gur nhgube'f abgrf pbagnvarq gur fragrapr "Ibyqrzbeg ubepehkrq gur Cvbarre cyndhr!"
The only way you can be remotely correct is if Eliezer has outright lied to us. You are almost directly calling Eliezer a liar. I believe that the probability of Eliezer being a liar is way, way, way lower than the probability that your theory, which is quite crackpottish and heretofore unsubstantiated even without considering Eliezer's comments on the matter, is correct.
Beware the Löbian death spiral.
Lbh ner ersreevat gb qr-choyvfurq zngrevny, juvpu nf sne nf V'z pbaprearq qbrf abg rkvfg. Nalguvat gung Ryvrmre unf jvguqenja sebz pnaba, ur vf serr gb punatr ng jvyy. Zl vzcerffvba (V qba'g ernq zbfg bs gur UCZBE guernqf) vf gung gung pbzzrag bs Ryvrmre'f, juvpu ab ybatre rkvfgf, vf gur fbyr fbhepr sbe D=I. V nyfb abgr gung gur Cvbarre vapvqrag unccrarq jryy orsber gur riragf bs UCZBE; jurgure D jnf= I gura V qba'g unir na bcvavba ba.
I gave in-world reasons, based purely on published HPMOR canon, for thinking Q != V. A meta-consideration tending in the same direction is this. In Rowling canon, Q=V, but this is a dramatic reveal at some point in the first volume. Readers coming to HPMOR having read Rowling, seeing that this is an alternate version of the Potterverse, will immediately be wondering how all the characters of the two parallel universes correspond to each other. Hence the question, as soon as Quirrell appears: is Q V? Now, how can the answer to this question be revealed as a surprise, if the answer is that Q=V? The only way of making a mystery of it is to plant suggestive hints that Q=V and then, when the time comes, reveal Q != V.
Anyway, I'm right or I'm wrong, and the story itself will give the real answer soon enough.
What makes you think it's supposed to be a surprise or a mystery? Maybe it's supposed to be obvious.
Or, plant suggestive hints that Q=V, assume you'll think it's a red herring, then reveal Q=V. If there's only one possible answer to a mystery, then it isn't a mystery!
There's only so many levels of bluffing that can fit into the cognitive space around the fic. Cf. the Unexpected Execution and the Blue-Eyed Monks. And look at all the people who are convinced already that Q=V. It will be a surprise to them if they turn out to be wrong.
And of course there's this, from chapter 12:
HPMOR!Quirrell doesn't hide the back of his head, which is oddly bald! It's a Significant Detail! A Clue! But Everyone is Ignoring it!
I took that particular passage as evidence that Rational!Voldemort is not so incompetent as to risk discovery through hat-removal.
Given that AB has correctly surmised who Q is, and AB's knowledge of Q is correct, circumstantial evidence that Q=V would be that Q re-establishes contact with his family and then they are all killed by V.
I currently believe that Q is V in some significant way, but they are not 'the same person' either.