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RichardKennaway comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I further predict, more speculatively, that Harry will wrongly come to the opposite conclusion, betray Quirrel, and only too late realise his mistake in turning against his strongest ally. Furthermore, Harry will make this mistake through applying what he has learned from Quirrel about good and evil to Quirrel himself.
All predictions based solely on my reading of the published story.
And furthermore, as a result of this, Harry's eventual victory will come at far greater cost than it otherwise would.
Beware the conjunction fallacy. Your scenario is complicated enough that its probability must be small, and also detailed enough that your brain is likely to try and overestimate that probability.
Of course. As I said in another comment, I rate the combined probability substantially below 0.5.
I think Quirrel is dying. He has lapses where he goes into "zombie-mode" and what is that, really? It could be some kind of disease or magical illness- perhaps at the end of the year Harry permanently loses his mentor because the illness has finally killed Q or put him in a coma.