The difference between P1=.04 and P1=.08 would have dramatic effects on an EV-calculator, but very little effect on the sort of person who judges probabilities by 'feel'.
I would expect it depends a lot on the algorithms underlying "feel" and what aspects of the environment they depend on. It's unlikely these people are choosing their behaviors or beliefs at random, after all.
More generally, if I actually want to manipulate the behavior of a group, I should expect that a good first step is to understand how their behavior depends on aspects of their environment, since often their environment is what I can actually manipulate.
Edit: I should add to this that I certainly agree that it's possible in principle for a system to be in a state where the most cost-effective thing to do to achieve deterrence is increase D. I just don't think it's necessarily true, and am skeptical that the U.S. is currently in such a state.
the hidden costs of increasing P1 are higher than you think
Sure, that's another possibility. Or of P2, come to that.
I admit I've never heard a good argument that what the US needs is to greatly increase the likelihood of sentencing a convict to significant prison time.
Is this not the rationale behind mandatory sentencing laws?
I admit I've never heard a good argument that what the US needs is to greatly increase the likelihood of sentencing a convict to significant prison time.
Is this not the rationale behind mandatory sentencing laws?
I can't think of a response to this that isn't threatening to devolve into a political argument, so I'll bow out here. Sorry.
The next discussion thread is here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 85. The previous thread has long passed 500 comments. Comment in the 15th thread until you read chapter 85.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
As a reminder, it’s often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
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