someonewrongonthenet comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Take the present state of the universe and use an imperfect tool to extrapolate likely future outcomes. Changing your mind causes the present state to shift towards predicting a certain future outcome more.
The only weird thing is that you can actually fool people by pretending. The prediction mechanism has to have some very specific flaws for that to work.