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Oscar_Cunningham comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong Discussion

33 Post author: perpetualpeace1 19 April 2012 05:27PM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 19 April 2012 06:11:45PM 17 points [-]

I'm going through all of Eliezer's comments looking for predictions by using search terms like "predict" and "bet". Just letting people know so that we don't duplicate effort.

Comment author: gwern 19 April 2012 06:14:41PM 4 points [-]

What have you found so far besides the stuff recorded in the bet registry like my recent bet with him on MoR winning a Hugo?

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 19 April 2012 06:24:55PM 4 points [-]

Lots of random posts. Also, I just realised that that page only covers Eliezer's stuff since the OB to LW move, so I'm not even getting most of his stuff.

Comment author: komponisto 19 April 2012 06:27:22PM 4 points [-]

that page only covers Eliezer's stuff since the OB to LW move

I don't think that's true. All OB comments were imported, and EY was one of the lucky ones who got them imported under their actual LW username.

Comment author: XiXiDu 19 April 2012 07:07:06PM 4 points [-]

that page only covers Eliezer's stuff since the OB to LW move

I don't think that's true. All OB comments were imported, and EY was one of the lucky ones who got them imported under their actual LW username.

He is talking about the script made my Wei_Dai. It does only fetch the LW content.

Comment author: komponisto 19 April 2012 07:14:46PM 2 points [-]

He is talking about the script made my Wei_Dai.

Doesn't that script just retrieve all the comments on the userpage and put them on one big page?

Comment author: XiXiDu 19 April 2012 07:20:30PM *  3 points [-]

Doesn't that script just retrieve all the comments on the userpage and put them on one big page?

Exactly. But for some reason it breaks down at 2009.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 19 April 2012 07:10:43PM 1 point [-]

The page only goes down to 24 February 2009, which was around the time of he move. In his posts there's a gap of a week before he mentions LW by name, thus it seems likely that the cut-off was at the move. In any case, that page doesn't have all the comments.

Comment author: Grognor 20 April 2012 05:53:13AM *  0 points [-]

You're not letting the page fully load. It loads them chronologically backwards.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 20 April 2012 08:21:06AM 0 points [-]

That page is formed by a script of Wei_Dai that for some reason breaks down in 2009, very close to when the site move was.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 20 April 2012 05:57:53PM 4 points [-]

It's probably hitting an out of memory error, due to how many posts and comments Eliezer has.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 April 2012 06:47:47PM 4 points [-]

From the registry:

"When someone designs a superintelligent AI (it won't be Eliezer), without paying any attention to Friendliness (the first person who does it won't), and the world doesn't end (it won't), it will be interesting to hear Eliezer's excuses."

So if Eliezer doesn't want to pay up he has to make his excuses really boring or decline to make them altogether.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 19 April 2012 07:18:54PM 2 points [-]

Making them boring enough that people who are already hypervigilant on this issue won't be interested in them would be quite a challenge, actually.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 20 April 2012 07:53:55AM 3 points [-]

"We got real lucky."

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