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perpetualpeace1 comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong Discussion
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The study linked to meant next to nothing in my eyes. It studied political predictions in an election year by political hacks on tv. 2007-2008. Guess what? IN an election cycle that liberals beat conservatives, the liberal predictions more often came true than conservative predictions.
Reminds me of the reported models of mortgage securities, created using data from boom times only.
Krugman was competing with a bunch of other political hacks and columnists. I doubt that accuracy is the highest motivation for any of them. The political hacks want to curry support, and the columnists want to be invited on tv and have their articles read. I'd put at least 3 motivations above accuracy for that crowd: manipulate attitudes, throw red meat to their natural markets, and entertain. It's Dark Arts, all the way, all the time.
OK, I don't want to get off-topic. EY doesn't practice the Dark Arts (at least, I hope not).
A lot of what EY writes makes sense to me. And I'd like to believe that we'll be sipping champagne on the other side of the galaxy when the last star in the Milky Way burns out (and note that I'm not saying that he's predicting that will happen). But I'm not a physicist or AI researcher - I want some way to know how much to trust what he writes. Is anything that he's said or done falsifiable? Has he ever publicly made his beliefs pay rent? I want to believe in a friendly AI future... but I'm not going to believe for the sake of believing.