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Wei_Dai comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong Discussion
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I suggest looking at his implicit beliefs, not just explicit predictions. For example, he must have thought that writing HPMoR was a good use of time, and therefore must have (correctly) predicted that it would be quite popular if he was to write it. On the other hand, his decision to delay publishing his TDT document seems to imply some rather wrong beliefs.
Isn't the simpler explanation that he just enjoys writing fiction?
The enjoyment of the activity factors into whether it is a good use of time.
I think at least a large part of the slowness on publishing TDT is due to his procrastination habits with publishable papers, which he openly acknowledges.
Although this may be a personal problem of his, it doesn't say anything against the ideas he has.
Talking about his own procrastination rather than producing results could be taken as evidence of incapacity and willingness to bullshit.