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ArisKatsaris comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong Discussion
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And btw, I'd also bet on the side of it not being found.
I have no significant physics knowledge, and am just basing this on the fact that it's not been found yet: People who think a discovery is really close seem to not be properly updating upwards the probability of its absence, given all previous failures to locate it.
They found something at 125 GeV last year. Most people think it is a Higgs, though perhaps not exactly according to the standard-model template.
ETA: When talking about Higgs particles one needs to distinguish between possibilities. In the standard model, the Higgs gives mass to the W and Z bosons in one way, and mass to the fermions in another way. "Everyone" believes in the first mechanism, but the second is not so straightforward. For example, the Higgs could couple in the second way just to the top quark, and then the other fermions could get their masses indirectly, through virtual processes involving the top. And that's just one of many, many possibilities. Even if they have now found the Higgs mass, it will still take years to measure its couplings.