To explain the issue here in intuitive terms: let's say we have the hypothesis that Alice owns a cat, and we start with the prior probability of a person owning a cat (let's say 1 in 20), and then update on the evidence: she recently moved from an apartment building that doesn't allow cats to one that does (3 times more likely if she has a cat than if she doesn't), she regularly goes to a pet store now (7 times more likely if she has a cat than if she doesn't), and when she goes out there's white hair on her jacket sleeves (5 times more likely if she has a cat than if she doesn't). Putting all of these together by Bayes' Rule, we end up 85% confident she has a cat, but in fact we're wrong: she has a dog. And thinking about it in retrospect, we shouldn't have gotten 85% certainty of cat ownership. How did we get so confident in a wrong conclusion?
It's because, while each of those likelihoods is valid in isolation, they're not independent: there are a big chunk of people who move to pet-friendly apartments and go to pet stores regularly and have pet hair on their sleeves, and not all of them are cat owners. Those people are called pet owners in general, but even if we didn't know that, a good Bayesian would have kept tabs on the cross-correlations and noted that the straightforward estimate would be thereby invalid.
EDITED TO ADD: So the difference between that and the IQ test example is that you don't expect there to be an exceptional number of people who get the first two questions right and then do poorly on the rest of the test. The analogue there would be that, even though ability to solve mathematical problems correlates with ability to solve language problems, you should only count that correlation once. If a person does well on a slate of math problems, that's evidence they'll do well on language problems, but doing well on a second math test doesn't count as more strong evidence they'll do well on word problems. (That is, there are sharply diminishing returns.)
The cat is defined outside being a combination of traits of owner; that is the difference between the cat and IQ or any other psychological measure. If we were to say 'pet', the formula would have worked, even better if we had a purely black box qualifier into people who have bunch of traits vs people who don't have bunch of traits, regardless of what is the cause (a pet, a cat, a weird fetish for pet related stuff).
It is however the case that narcissism does match sociopathy, to the point that difference between the two is not very well defined. Anyhow we...
I blew through all of MoR in about 48 hours, and in an attempt to learn more about the science and philosophy that Harry espouses, I've been reading the sequences and Eliezer's posts on Less Wrong. Eliezer has written extensively about AI, rationality, quantum physics, singularity research, etc. I have a question: how correct has he been? Has his interpretation of quantum physics predicted any subsequently-observed phenomena? Has his understanding of cognitive science and technology allowed him to successfully anticipate the progress of AI research, or has he made any significant advances himself? Is he on the record predicting anything, either right or wrong?
Why is this important: when I read something written by Paul Krugman, I know that he has a Nobel Prize in economics, and I know that he has the best track record of any top pundit in the US in terms of making accurate predictions. Meanwhile, I know that Thomas Friedman is an idiot. Based on this track record, I believe things written by Krugman much more than I believe things written by Friedman. But if I hadn't read Friedman's writing from 2002-2006, then I wouldn't know how terribly wrong he has been, and I would be too credulous about his claims.
Similarly, reading Mike Darwin's predictions about the future of medicine was very enlightening. He was wrong about nearly everything. So now I know to distrust claims that he makes about the pace or extent of subsequent medical research.
Has Eliezer offered anything falsifiable, or put his reputation on the line in any way? "If X and Y don't happen by Z, then I have vastly overestimated the pace of AI research, or I don't understand quantum physics as well as I think I do," etc etc.