ShardPhoenix comments on Prisoner's Dilemma on game show Golden Balls - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (29)
Why would you choose steal here, if you actually believed he had precommitted to it? There's a decent enough chance he would honor his word. I doubt you would gain much, if anything, from appearing spiteful on TV.
I'd gain all of the money for a start. You are not going to have much luck convincing me that 'steal' is irrational here given that it has better overall strategic properties (than this guys ploy) and happens to be the winning move in this case.
Choosing 'steal' vs 'steal' doesn't seem particularly spiteful to me.
You seem to be working on the assumption that you knew or strongly suspected that he would actually choose "split" despite apparently pre-committing to "steal". If you believed him to any significant extent it is clearly better to choose split and hope he keeps his word (unless for some reason you think this makes you look bad enough that you'd rather willingly give up an expected large fraction of 6000 pounds instead).
Welcome to the land of Hindsight Bias. Enjoy your stay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight