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b1shop comments on Prisoner's Dilemma on game show Golden Balls - Less Wrong Discussion
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The next contestant needs to say:
"I'm going to choose steal. If you choose split, I'll give you 25 percent after the show. I promise."
I don't think that's gonna work even a tenth as well as a promise of 50 percent. Promises work on the basis of the kind of honor that's also correlated to concepts of justice and fairness.
Once someone has already effectively proclaimed themselves to be unfair and dishonorable, their promises would seem worthless. At that point the other contestant would be even more likely than before to choose "steal" for the purposes of retribution.