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Armok_GoB comments on Punctuality - Arriving on Time and Math - Less Wrong Discussion
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This algorithm is trivially obvious, and doesn't work in actual meaningfully problematic cases.
It breaks down on large sigmas, where in order to get lateness probability to reasonable levels you will on average sit outside in the rain waiting for 5 hours every day.
It breaks down on large task lengths, where in order to arrive in time, you'd have to start before you got home the previous day.
[/unreasonably pissed of that article didn't have solution to impossible problems]