[SEQ RERUN] When Science Can't Help

MinibearRex

Today's post, When Science Can't Help was originally published on 15 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

If you have an idea, Science tells you to test it experimentally. If you spend 10 years testing the idea and the result comes out negative, Science slaps you on the back and says, "Better luck next time." If you want to spend 10 years testing a hypothesis that will actually turn out to be right, you'll have to try to do the thing that Science doesn't trust you to do: think rationally, and figure out the answer before you get clubbed over the head with it.

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Today's post, When Science Can't Help was originally published on 15 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

If you have an idea, Science tells you to test it experimentally. If you spend 10 years testing the idea and the result comes out negative, Science slaps you on the back and says, "Better luck next time." If you want to spend 10 years testing a hypothesis that will actually turn out to be right, you'll have to try to do the thing that Science doesn't trust you to do: think rationally, and figure out the answer before you get clubbed over the head with it.

Have you noticed a contradiction in what you said?

I had not, actually. Thank you. Perhaps I should refer to it as the Presently Untestable Many Worlds Hypothesis (PUMWH).

A simpler and just as powerful approach is that repeatably testable models are all there is. It is tempting to assign repeatability of testing to the invisible unachievable "objective reality" behind the veil, something science strives to uncover, but this notion is unnecessary.

In The Simple Truth, EY argued that we use the word "reality" to mean whatever it is that actually determines our observations, and "models" to mean whatever we use to generate our predictions. That seems like a very useful approach to it. And if there isn't any "objective reality" that determines my observations, why do my observations seem so frequently to correspond to an ordered, lawful universe?

(upvoted)

Perhaps I should refer to it as the Presently Untestable Many Worlds Hypothesis (PUMWH).

*tries to pronounce PUMWH... *fails miserably. I just wanted to note that a hypothesis that is specifically designed to not make new predictions (remember, it has exactly the same math as any other interpretation) is not a hypothesis, but a cocktail party talk.

why do my observations seem so frequently to correspond to an ordered, lawful universe?

Because map/territory is a very useful model in so many cases. Just not all of them.

2TheOtherDave14y

So, you and shminux both seem to agree that there exists some X such that X determines observations, and that there exists some Y such that we use Y to constrain our predictions. You label (X,Y) ("reality","model"). Shminux labels (X,Y) ("repeatably testable model","model"). Is there a situation where one framework makes different predictions than the other? More generally, is there anything y'all are actually disagreeing about, other than labels? It sounds like you both agree, for example, that different observers can share an X while having different Ys, as can the same observer at different times, and that different Ys can vary in terms of how closely they approximate X, and that it's best to adopt the most reliably X-approximating Ys I can. What don't you agree on? I admit I find shminux's labeling a little bizarre, as it leads me to say things like "the behavior of a Neandrathal hunter who falls off a cliff is constrained by a repeatably testable model", but pretty much whatever labels I use I will end up saying some bizarre things about how the world really works, so that doesn't bug me too much. EDIT: Based on discussions below, I revise my understanding of the Xs and Ys to: (X,Y)minibearrex ("reality","set of models"). (X,Y)shminux ("set of repeatably testable models","set of models").

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