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JoshuaZ comments on I Stand by the Sequences - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Grognor 15 May 2012 10:21AM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 17 May 2012 05:48:09PM *  2 points [-]

The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it's as much of a conjunction fallacy as "My entire leg will function."

Even professional runners will occasionally trip. Even Terry Tao occasionally makes a math error.

The point isn't that even highly reliable processes are likely to output some bad ideas over the long term.