= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Normal_Anomaly comments on Irrational hardware vs. rational software - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (41)
I don't have real world stats, but here's a hypothetical scenario. Say there's a world where there's two options for making money: a lottery with a .0001 percent (1 in 1,000,000) chance of making a billion dollars (EV $1000), or an investment with a 100 percent chance of making a million dollars. The rational thing to do is invest, but the richest people will have bought lottery tickets. So will a great many broke people, but you won't see them on the news.
careful with your utility function. You need utility to be linear over money to do expected value.
If your goal is to be a billionaire, the ev of the lottery is 1e-6 and the ev of the solid investment is 0. (assigning utility 1 to state of being billionaire and 0 otherwise)