Just to make sure I understand you: does it make sense to be confident that the roll of a hundred-sided die won't be 12?
EDIT: I meant to say "Yes more or less, but the closer mapping of that analogy is . .."
No, but the closer mapping of that analogy is: does it make sense to be confident that the "roll" of an unknown object will be 12 when you don't even know that it's a die?
It's just occurred to me that, giving all the cheerful risk stuff I work with, one of the most optimistic things people could say to me would be:
"You've wasted your life. Nothing of what you've done is relevant or useful."
That would make me very happy. Of course, that only works if it's credible.