Have I correctly generalized your reasoning and applied it to the case I asked about?
Yeah, kind of.
However, your P1 statement already implies the most important parts of K1 and K2; as just by inserting the adjective "hundred-sided" into P1 loads it with this knowledge. Beyond that the K1 and K2 stuff is cumbersome background detail that most human brains will have (but of course also necessary for understanding 'dice').
By including "hundred-sided' in the analogy, you are importing a ton of implicit confidence in the true probability distribution in question. Your 'analogy' assumes you already know the answer with complete confidence.
That analogy would map to an argument (for AI risk) written out in labyrinthine explicit well grounded detail, probably to the point of encoding complete tested/proven working copies of the entire range of future AGI designs.
In other words, your probability estimate in the dice analogy is only high confidence because of the confidence in understanding how dice work, and that the object in question actually is a hundred sided die.
We don't have AGI yet, so we can't understand them in the complete engineering sense that we understand dice. Moreover, stuart above claimed we don't even understand how AGI will be built.
However, your P1 statement already implies the most important parts of K1 and K2; as just by inserting the adjective "hundred-sided" into P1 loads it with this knowledge.
I disagree.
For example, I can confirm that something is a hundred-sided die by the expedient of counting its sides.
But if a known conman bets me $1000 that P1 is false, I will want to do more than count the sides of the die before I take that bet. (For example, I will want to roll it a few times to ensure it's not loaded.)
That suggests that there are important facts in K2 oth...
It's just occurred to me that, giving all the cheerful risk stuff I work with, one of the most optimistic things people could say to me would be:
"You've wasted your life. Nothing of what you've done is relevant or useful."
That would make me very happy. Of course, that only works if it's credible.