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Kaj_Sotala comments on Reaching young math/compsci talent - Less Wrong Discussion
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...and after posting that comment, I remembered that I had made an earlier post citing studies that said that it's the middle-aged and not young scientists who are the most productive, which is in conflict with the results I just quoted. I feel silly now. I guess I should re-read the studies that I referenced three years ago to figure out what version is correct.
Just to make the obvious point, your earlier post seems to draw on citations using mostly post-60s and later data, while that 1988 paper uses many citations from the 60s or earlier.