I read Shalizi's post on the difficulties of central planning, where he noted that even using something as simple as linear optimization to organize things becomes impossible if you need to do it on the scale of a national economy. This made me significantly reduce my belief in the proposition that something like CEV would be anywhere near computationally tractable, at least in the form that it's usually discussed.

That made me consider something like Goertzel & Pitt's human-assisted CBV approach, where much of the necessary computation gets outsourced to humans, as an approach that's more likely to work. Of course, their approach pretty much requires a slow takeoff in order to work, and I consider a hard takeoff pretty likely. Logically I should then have updated more towards considering that we'll end of losing our complexity of value during the Singularity but I didn't, possibly because I was already giving that a very high probability anyway and I can't perceive my intuitive probability estimates in sufficiently high precision for the difference to register. However I did update considerably towards thinking that Goertzel's ideas on Friendliness have more merit than I'd previously presumed, and that people should be looking in a direction like the one Goerzel & Pitt propose.