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Thomas comments on What was your biggest recent surprise? - Less Wrong Discussion
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You, an astronomer, should always ask yourself: Giving this light pattern in time, what is the most probable source which would give me this pattern. Be it static or dynamic, whichever fits the best.
The standard approach is to simulate multiple possible sources and use Bayesian techniques, such as maximum likelihood, to evaluate which ones match the data best and whether the best is a good enough fit. The waveforms matching in LIGO is one of the extremes, given how weak the potential signal is.