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lukstafi comments on Thwarting a Catholic conversion? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Orthodox Church is strictly more probable than Catholic Church regarding truthness of dogma. ETA: assuming that both probabilities are greater than zero.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecumenical_council#Eastern_Orthodox_Church vs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecumenical_council#Roman_Catholic_Church . Although in some writings the Catholic Church suggests that an old doctrine might change under "doctrinal development", at other times it claims that Revelation is not subject to revision, which suggests to me that it cannot drop a once-claimed dogma.