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Randaly comments on Can anyone explain to me why CDT two-boxes? - Less Wrong Discussion

-12 Post author: Andreas_Giger 02 July 2012 06:06AM

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Comment author: Randaly 02 July 2012 07:51:18AM 2 points [-]

CDT doesn't change the payoffs. If it takes the single box and there is money in in, it still receives a million dollars; if it also takes the other box, it will receive 10,000 additional dollars. These are the standard payoffs to Newcomb's Problem.

What you are assuming is that your decision affects Omega's prediction. While it is nice that your intuition is so strong, CDTers disagree with this claim, as your decision has no causal impact on Omega's prediction.

This formulation of Newcomb's Problem may clarify the wrong intuition:

Suppose that the boxes are transparent, ie you can already see whether or not there's a million dollars present. Suppose you see that there is a million dollars present; then you have no reason not to grab an additional 10,000- after all, per Givewell, that probably let's you save ~8 lives. You wouldn't want to randomly toss away 8 lives, would you? And the million is already present, you can see it with your own eyes, it's there no matter what you do. If you take both boxes, the money won't magically vanish- the payoff matrix is that, if the money's there, you get it, end of story.

But, suppose there isn't a million dollars there. Are you really going to walk away empty-handed, when you know, for sure, that you won't be getting a million dollars? After all, the money's already not there, Omega will not be paying a million dollars, no matter what happens. So your choice is between 0$ and 10,000$- again, are you really going to toss away those ~8 lives for nothing, no reason, no gain?

This is equivalent to the standard formulation: you may not be able to see the million, but it is already either present or not present.