Randaly comments on Can anyone explain to me why CDT two-boxes? - Less Wrong Discussion
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No, this is false. CDT is the one using the standard payoff matrix, and you are the one refusing to use the standard payoff matrix and substituting your own.
In particular: the money is either already there, or not already there. Once the game has begun, the Predictor is powerless to change things.
The standard payoff matrix for Newcomb is therefore as follows:
The problem becomes trivial if, as you are doing, you refuse to consider the second and fourth outcomes. However, you are then not playing Newcomb's Problem.
No, only then am I playing Newcomb. What you're playing is weak Newcomb, where you assign a probability of x>0 for Omega being wrong, at which point this becomes simple math where CDT will give you the correct result, whatever that may turn out to be.
No, you are assuming that your decision can change what's in the box, which everybody agrees is wrong: the problem statement is that you cannot change what's in the million-dollar box.
Also, what you describe as "weak Newcomb" is the standard formulation: Nozick's original problem stated that the Predictor was "almost always" right. CDT still gives the wrong answer in simple Newcomb, as its decision cannot affect what's in the box.