Suppose that Omega is wrong with probability p<1 (this is a perfectly realistic and sensible case). What does (your interpretation of) CDT do in this case, and with what probability?

Here is my EDT calculation:

• calculate p(2box|1box prediction)1001000+p(2box|2box prediction)1000=1001000(1-p)+1000p

• calculate p(1box|1box prediction)1001000+p(1box|2box prediction)1000=1001000p+1000(1-p)

• pick largest of the two (which is 1-box if p < 50%, 2-box if p > 50%).

Thus one should 1-box even if Omega is slightly better than chance.