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John_Maxwell_IV comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion
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I proposed a variation on this game, optimized for usefulness instead of novelty: the "maximal update game". Start with a one sentence summary of your conclusion, then justify it. Vote up or down the submissions of others based on the degree to which you update on the one sentence summary of the person's conclusion. (Hence no UFOs at the top, unless good arguments for them can be made.)
If anyone wants to try this game, feel free to do it in replies to this comment.
Downvoted for agreement: you did in fact propose the specified variation.
He didn't state his confidence level. Since his probability estimate for this is likely much higher than mine, I upvoted.
That seems worth its own thread.