You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

VincentYu comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion

13 [deleted] 03 July 2012 06:50PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (380)
Tags: irrationality contrarianism fun disagreement

Comments (380)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: VincentYu 04 July 2012 03:36:36AM *  3 points [-]

I'm confused by the upvotes. (ETA: Parent was at +7 votes when I commented.) What do people disagree with?

The only controversial part for me is the use of certain words (in bold below), but these are minor disagreements that disappear under a charitable interpretation:

Dark arts are very toxic, in the sense that you naturally and necessarily use any and all of your relevant beliefs to construct self-serving arguments on most occasions.

Otherwise, I believe the parent's statements with high confidence (95%).

Comment author: marchdown 04 July 2012 03:58:02AM 1 point [-]

What a fun game! I notice that I'm somewhat confused, too. I see a couple of different approaches; maybe some of the upvoters would step in and explain themselves.

Comment author: wedrifid 04 July 2012 08:28:23AM 0 points [-]

What a fun game! I notice that I'm somewhat confused, too. I see a couple of different approaches; maybe some of the upvoters would step in and explain themselves.

If getting upvotes for a comment here is something that would confuses you then you aren't supposed to make the comment. The point is to make comments that you predict others will disagree/upvote despite you actually believing what you are saying.

Comment author: marchdown 04 July 2012 09:32:18AM *  2 points [-]

I was confused about getting several upvotes quickly, but without prompting debate. I began wondering if my proposition pattern-matched something not as interesting to discuss.

Comment author: wedrifid 04 July 2012 04:13:16PM 0 points [-]

That makes sense.

Comment author: Grognor 04 July 2012 05:29:53PM 0 points [-]

Your confidence is much higher than marchdown's. You should have upvoted because you think he's underconfident. Mind you I upvoted it myself because:

once you catch other people using dark arts and understand what's going on, you are more likely to use the same tricks yourself

is definitely not true for me, as when I learn that I am subtly and subconsciously manipulating people, I stop doing it. And when I learn some trick to make people agree with me, I make sure I don't do it.

Comment author: VincentYu 04 July 2012 06:28:35PM 0 points [-]

Your confidence is much higher than marchdown's. You should have upvoted because you think he's underconfident.

Even when using 80% as Marchdown's confidence, I didn't feel that our confidences were much different, so I just calculated: the ln of our odds ratio is 1.56, whereas in the original rules, that for

If they're at 99.9% and you're at 99.5%, it could go either way.

is 1.61. So at least according to the OP, I could have downvoted (and I did).

But the other reason I thought our confidences were similar is that Marchdown put >80%, which I took to mean that eir confidence is greater than 80%.

Comment author: Grognor 05 July 2012 04:16:50AM 0 points [-]

Fair enough.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit