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NancyLebovitz comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion
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Upvoted because 10% as an estimate seems too high.
I especially can't imagine why transhuman powers would have used the end of the calendar of a long-dead civilization (one of many comparable civilizations) to foreshadow the end of their game plan.
Also, even if the transhuman powers are choosing based on current end-of-the-world predictions, there's no reason why they would choose 2012 rather than any of the many past predictions.