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Grognor comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion

13 [deleted] 03 July 2012 06:50PM

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Comment author: Grognor 04 July 2012 05:29:53PM 0 points [-]

Your confidence is much higher than marchdown's. You should have upvoted because you think he's underconfident. Mind you I upvoted it myself because:

once you catch other people using dark arts and understand what's going on, you are more likely to use the same tricks yourself

is definitely not true for me, as when I learn that I am subtly and subconsciously manipulating people, I stop doing it. And when I learn some trick to make people agree with me, I make sure I don't do it.

Comment author: VincentYu 04 July 2012 06:28:35PM 0 points [-]

Your confidence is much higher than marchdown's. You should have upvoted because you think he's underconfident.

Even when using 80% as Marchdown's confidence, I didn't feel that our confidences were much different, so I just calculated: the ln of our odds ratio is 1.56, whereas in the original rules, that for

If they're at 99.9% and you're at 99.5%, it could go either way.

is 1.61. So at least according to the OP, I could have downvoted (and I did).

But the other reason I thought our confidences were similar is that Marchdown put >80%, which I took to mean that eir confidence is greater than 80%.

Comment author: Grognor 05 July 2012 04:16:50AM 0 points [-]

Fair enough.

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