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wedrifid comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion

13 [deleted] 03 July 2012 06:50PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 09 July 2012 09:45:48PM 2 points [-]

This seems like a clear example of "You shouldn't adjust the probability that high just because you're trying to avoid overconfidence; that's privileging a complicated possibility."

Has there been a post on this subject yet? Handling overconfidence in that sort of situation is complicated.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 09 July 2012 10:24:13PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: wedrifid 10 July 2012 12:42:24AM 1 point [-]

Thanks! I recall reading that one but didn't recall.

It still leaves me with some doubt about how to handle uncertainty around the extremes without being pumpable or sometimes catastrophically wrong. I suppose some of that is inevitable given hardware that is both bounded and corrupted but I rather suspect there is some benefit to learning more. There's probably a book or ten out there I could read.