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Armok_GoB comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion
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It may or may not be an example, but it's certainly not a clear one to me. Please explain? The entire sentence seems nonsensical, I know that the individual words mean but not how to apply them to the situation. Is this just some psychological effect because it targets a statement I personally made? It certainly doesn't feel like it but...
Edit: Figured out what I misunderstood. I modelled as .02 positive confidence not .98 negative confidence.
2% is way way way WAY too high for something like that. You shouldn't be afraid to assign a probability much closer to 0.