gwern comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion
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The nice thing about this one is that it's really easy to test yourself. A plastic bag to put ice or hot water into, and some computerized mental exercise like dual n-back. I know if I thought this at anywhere close to 30% I'd test it...
EDIT: see Yvain's full version: http://squid314.livejournal.com/320770.html http://squid314.livejournal.com/321233.html http://squid314.livejournal.com/321773.html
Self-experimentation seems like a really bad way to test things about mental exhaustion. It would be way too easy to placebo myself into working for a longer amount of time without a break, when testing the condition that would support my theory. Might wait until I can find a test subject.
If you got a result consistent with your theory, then yes it might just be placebo effect, but is that result entirely useless; and if you got a result inconsistent with your theory, is that useless as well?