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wedrifid comments on Irrationality Game II - Less Wrong Discussion
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Irrationality game upvote for disagreement. This is based on the confidence rather than the claim. I would also upvote if the probability given was, say, less than 1%.
80% is hardly "confident"... but fair enough.
I perhaps could have said "the specific probability estimate given" to be clearer about the meaning I was attempting to convey.