juliawise comments on Moderate alcohol consumption inversely correlated with all-cause mortality - Less Wrong Discussion
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Why wouldn't I experience placebo effects if I started drinking as the result of controlled trials which suggest that drinking will reduce all-cause mortality?
I want to know the effectiveness of the combination of chemical effects and placebo effects from the treatment I take, not the effectiveness of an outwardly similar treatment that has had significant changes made for the purpose of getting results different from the results I should expect.
Ah. I believe we have interpreted shminux's top-level comment differently. I think shminux was stating that establishing the direct causal effects of alcohol consumption requires a blinded randomized controlled trial (RCT), which is true. However, blinding is indeed not required if one wishes to include the effects from the intervention method.
I am undecided on whether blinded RCTs are more cost-effective at the moment (obviously, it depends sensitively on what one wants to find out). In any case, I think we'll agree that any interventional study – blinded or unblinded – will offer a larger degree of control than the current observational studies. However, I did a brief literature search, and found Klatsky's (2010) comments on the difficulties in doing interventional studies on drinking: